Wednesday, February 16, 2011

UAlbany - the case for 4th (or 5th)

So I don't usually sit around the office just kicking ideas about where teams will finish in the league (at least not until February).

Here the cliff notes of this post - for if you don't have much time - UAlbany should prefer to finish fourth (or fifth) than third.

There's still a chance that UAlbany could finish third - if they win out and Maine loses at least two of three. The Great Danes could finish as high as 9-7 and Maine is currently 8-5. The two teams meet in Orono on Sunday, Feb. 27.

While there's no way to predict or choose where you finish, the Great Danes would be better served finishing fourth or fifth.

Here's why:

Vermont has all but wrapped up the No. 1 seed and the regular season championship.

UAlbany has a better chance to beat the Catamounts in the semifinals than they would at beating Boston University (the hottest team in America East and winners of five straight).

The Great Danes have always had a chance, when they play Vermont (see 2008 America East quarterfinal).

While both Vermont and Boston University swept UAlbany this season, the Great Danes played their best game (of those four) against the Terriers at home, leading by 16 at halftime, before losing by three.

The Terriers have adjusted to playing without Jake O'Brien, who I believe is out for the season. Boston University has rattled off 10 victories over their last 13 games and continue to get hotter, after Tuesday's 22-point victory over UMBC.

While there's still a quarterfinal matchup to worry about, I think that UAlbany's easiest path to the title game would be playing Vermont rather than Boston U.

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1 Comments:

Blogger Brian said...

I agree 100%. It's obviously dealing in hypothetics, but your scenario would work best for the Danes. Plus, if UAlbany got that far, playing BU at their place for the (again, hypothetical) championship would seem a bit less difficult than UVM at home..though the Danes do have a notable history up in Burlington.

February 16, 2011 at 8:08 PM 

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